Steven Pifer, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, joined the League of Women Voters of Piedmont on November 2, 2022 to discuss the current situation and prospects for Ukraine. The live audience included members from 16 different Leagues from California, Oregon, and Michigan. Topics included a brief recap of the war in Ukraine, options for ending the war, the effects of the war within Russia, the risk for Europe and other neighboring countries, US involvement and public opinion, and nuclear threats.
Ambassador Pifer first talked about some of the surprises from the war, including the effectiveness of the Ukrainian military and the poor state of the Russian military’s logistics, command structure, military tactics and training.
He broke down the war into three main phases. The first was from February 24th through March. Russia’s initial attack was from the East, intended to capture Kiev and occupy the eastern half to two-thirds of Ukraine. It was not successful. In the second phase, from April through July, the new goal was to capture all of the Donbas region. This push resulted in seizing Luhansk but not Donetsk. The third phase, from August to the present, has seen Ukrainian counter offenses in which Russian forces have been pushed out of formerly occupied territories.
When asked how the war might end, Ambassador Pifer went on to talk about the unlikely possibility of a negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia. He discussed the reasons why a settlement is unlikely and what the West can do to support Ukraine both in its current and post-war efforts. He highlighted societal influences within Ukraine and Russia that led to the conflict, which are currently affecting its resolution. He said he would like to see Russia “come to terms with the fact that it’s no longer the Russian empire – the Soviet Union – and that it ought to be finding ways to live in peace with its neighbors.”
He also discussed perception of the war within Russia both with the general public and within Putin’s inner circle; the risk to other countries, including Georgia, Kazakhstan, and the Baltic states; war crimes and the potential for Russian accountability; past corruption in the Ukrainian government; movement of Europe away from a dependency on Russian oil and gas; and the potential effects of the US midterm election on US support of Ukraine. While he understands the American people may be upset about the US spending money to help Ukraine when that money could go toward solving domestic problems, he cautioned that a short-term redistribution of these funds would have negative long-term repercussions. If the US fails to financially support Ukraine in its current war efforts, it is likely to result in an even larger conflict that would not only require much higher amounts of funding, but also have the potential for direct US military involvement and the loss of American soldiers.
Responding to questions about the threat of nuclear attacks on Ukraine from Russia, Ambassador Pifer offered multiple reasons why it is unlikely. To date, he has concluded that while the rules for responding to the use of tactical nuclear weapons have never been tested, we know the “consequences are nasty, unpredictable and potentially catastrophic, including for Russia.” Putin is aware of this and wants to avoid it.
To learn more from former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Steven Pifer, please watch the recording of this presentation on our YouTube channel.